Dave Hakes' – Island Mode

"I must do something!" will always solve more problems than "Something must be done"

Archive for May, 2020

Just the Data

Posted by delta on 28th May 2020

I’m not coming at this from any perspective other than I am one of 150,000 people who live on an island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.  I’m completely indifferent to who you are or what you do or don’t do.  I don’t care if you work or not; I don’t care if you stay on the island or bail.  I don’t care if you wear a mask or not, or what your reasons are…

THIS IS JUST THE DATA – this is what we know based on what can be found online at the moment:

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, of Americans:

  • 40%  Work
  • 20%  Do Not Work
  • 20%  Too Young To Work (Keiki/Children)
  • 20%  Are Retired/Elderly

If you apply those numbers to the 150,000 population of Maui County:

  • 40% = 60,000 Workers
  • 20% = 30,000 Non-Workers
  • 20% = 30,000 Keiki
  • 20% = 30,000 Retired

Last week Mayor Victorino stated in his daily video that there are 37,000 people in Maui County who have lost their jobs due to the lockdown.  This changes the numbers above to:

  • 15% = 23,000 Workers (“Essential” – stupid term)
  • 44.7% = 67,000 Non-Workers
  • 20% = 30,000 Keiki
  • 20% = Retired

There are 54,000 Households in Maui County:

  • 35,500 Family Households
  • 18,500 Non-Family Households

Statistically, from the numbers above, 42.6% of Maui Households have at least one person earning a paycheck today – 57.4% do not.

The Lt. Governor, just yesterday, finally gave me the number I have been looking for since this thing started.  44,228 people have had the PCR test (which tells you whether or not you are active with COVID-19).  Of the 44,228 folks tested in the state of Hawaii 643 have tested positive and 17 of those have died – that is:

  • 01.50% of those tested have tested positive for the active virus
  • 98.50% have tested negative for the active virus
  • 00.038% of those tested have died
  • 99.962% of those tested have not died

If we set the population of Hawaii as 1.5 million:

  • 02.90% of the population has been PCR tested for COVID-19
  • 97.1% of the population has not been PCR tested for COVID-19
  • 00.04% of the population has tested positive for COVID-19
  • 00.001% of the population has died from COVID-19

A recent study by a local doctor (who will remain anonymous due to all the crap he’s getting for ordering all these tests) – of 93 people tested for the antibodies, 6 had the antibodies with more than 98% accuracy – that is 6.45% for that population…

So, statistically, of 150,000 residents and 54,000 households in Maui County:

  • 145,650 Have not been PCR tested for COVID-19 (97.1%)
  • 127,050 People OF ALL AGES not working (84.7% – includes Keiki and Retired folks)
  • 67,000 People OF WORKING AGE not working (44.70% of total pop)
  • 37,000 People who have lost their job due to lockdown (61.67% of those working March 1st; 24.67% of total pop)
  • 31,320 Households without income (57.4%)
  • 23,000 Essential Workers (15% of total pop; 38.33% of those working March 1st)
  • 22,680 Households with income (42.6%)
  • 9,675 residents have the antibodies (6.45% of total pop)
  • 4,350 have been PCR tested for COVID-19 (2.9% of total pop)
  • 118 tested positive for COVID-19 PCR test (00.079% of total pop)
  • 2 to 6 People Died from COVID-19 (00.0013% – 00.004% of total pop)

See the whole picture:  breath…  step back…  breath some more…  and look at the whole picture…

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How important is tourism to Maui?

Posted by delta on 13th May 2020

How important is the tourist to the Maui economy?  Well, let’s think about the numbers for a moment…

When the tourist get here, they get their 

  1. rental car and go to
  2. Costco. They then stop by that
  3. restaurant they heard about (or fell in love with last time) and then on to their
  4. hotel/BnB. After unpacking, they go take a nap and then to the beach. On the way to, or on their way back from, the beach they stop for supplies and gas at the local
  5. mini-mart and after the beach they go to
  6. another restaurant. They also, if it’s their first time and want to see the island, most likely
  7. bike down the volcano, do a
  8. helicopter tour,
  9. hang in Hana for a day,
  10. hang in Paia for a day,
  11. hang on the West Side for a day,
  12. hang on the South Side for a day.

On a five day stay, (#3), (#4), (#5) and (#6) would happen at least once a day. This would be approximately 30 “Points of Contact” in which the vacationer buys something – which allows the business owners to pay their employees as well as their taxes to the state and federal government…  Going off on a slight tangent – try “Contact Tracing” the above…

Maui Vacation for four would probably cost $5000 if they were really watching their budget, but more likely it would cost $10,000 or more…  If we had just 5,000 families (20,000 people) visiting, that would be between 5 and 10 million dollars a day to our economy…

Now, let’s talk about the support workers.  I’ll choose the Grand Wailea because it has about 1,500 employees and contractors and it would (all by itself) cause the biggest hit to our economy here on Maui.

Who supports the support workers?

  1. gas station
  2. mechanic
  3. morning coffee
  4. lunch cafe
  5. dinner stop
  6. gym
  7. mini-mart
  8. FOOD shopping
  9. HOME shopping
  10. entertainment – concerts/movies

That’s 1,500 people who have their 10 favorite places/folks for the services above.  That doesn’t count the plumbers, carpet cleaners, carpenters, etc…  So, just the 1,500 folks who support the vacationer at the Grand Wailea support 15,000 people.  There’s no doubt that we all go to Starbucks, Safeway, Costco, Foodland, Home Depot, Lowes, Walmart and Target (that will create a small discrepancy with the numbers)…

That’s just one hotel.  On the South Side we have the Kea Lani, Four Season, Grand Wailea, Andaz and Marriott.  On the West Side we have the Hyatt, Westin, Ka`anapali Beach Hotel, Sheraton and Ritz…  Between these 10 hotels there are approximately 10,000 support personnel which are directly supported by another 100,000 folks…  That’s it, that’s the ballgame – our entire Maui island population (minus about 10,000-15,000 people) is here to support tourism…

Now, imagine that there are no tourists and the hotels are closed.  Not only are we not receiving the money from the tourists, but there is no money for the support staff to spend on any of the folks who support them…  Imagine that for one moment…

Why doesn’t the governor see this?  For one, he doesn’t care – he’s made it perfectly clear that he doesn’t care about our economy here on Maui.  More importantly, the island he lives on is supported by the military – these 50,000 men and women receive their checks on time every two weeks (as they should)…  The support staff for the vacationers are taking a dive, but he still has folks on his island who can support basic business openings here and there throughout the island he lives on – if Oahu opens up without tourists, about 60% of the businesses can be supported by those receiving paychecks on the island…

Now, even if he had suddenly realize what he has done to our economy and tells Maui it can open up everything (including tourism), it doesn’t matter at this point.  The small business owner who is still in business after all of this doesn’t want to open because they can not support a staff if they have no business…

Think about what a tourists would have to go through on their “dream vacation”…

1st – due to the 14 day quarantine, they would have to ask for 19 days off of work just to get their 5 days in the sun (risking their job)…

2nd – they would have to brave the trip here under the “New Normal” Guidelines – airports, planes, etc

3rd – they would have to get a rental car that doesn’t look like a rental cause the locals would trash their car if they saw it

4th – they would have to be tracked and risk jail if they broke the quarantine

5th – after their 14 days of quarantine they would find very few things open

6th – of the few places they find open, they would have to deal with the “new normal” of masks, social distancing and the locals not wanting them here – the Spirit of Aloha is out the window at the moment

After a few tourists posted their Maui Adventure on Facebook and Twitter there would be a sudden mass cancellations of “dream vacations” – oh yeah, it’ll spread like wildfire…

Where does that leave us?  It leaves us here – exactly where we are – our main source of income on this island is gone.  We have to figure out another way of living.  The mayor keeps alluding to Maui going back to being an Agrarian Society – I, for one, think that’s a great idea but not too many folks here on the island could live that way.  I know they think they could, but I don’t think they truly understand the scope of it…  I don’t think they truly understand how they would be living in ten years or what that would look like…  It would be work, both mentally and physically – and I’m not sure the folks who are here at the moment are the folks for the job – prove me wrong – please prove me wrong…

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Be Worthy

Posted by delta on 8th May 2020

Mr Joe Blow has always kinda looked at me and “sank” into themselves.  Maybe it’s my eyes (just one of those guys born with “Mean Eyes”), maybe it’s that I’ve always been built (like a Brick Outhouse – even at 51 years old), maybe it’s that I don’t like sitting (they have no idea that it’s simply because after 5 minutes it’s just too hard to get out of a chair for me) or maybe it’s just the way I move from side to side while standing (as if I’m always ready to “GO” – which I am, truth be told)…

As a business owner, if the first person I see on site is male, I’ve always tried to smile first to relieve the tension before it began (I have a rather large smile) and say/do something to get them to laugh at me (not with me, at me) as quickly as I can.  Charm goes a long way…

I have never liked that I intimidated people for no other reason than walking into a room.  I like to watch people and it’s hard to watch them if they are watching you – they don’t act the way they would normally act, so I get a revision of their normal behavior…

For these reasons I thoroughly enjoy “watching” folks online.  They can’t see me or anyone else.  You can get more “intel” on how an individual thinks/feels about almost anything.  Someone who cowers in front of you in person, or simply stays out of the conversation to be PC, will “let er rip” on Facebook or Twitter or…

What have I been seeing lately?  The reason I got out…

I got out of the military because they made a mistake.  Their mistake was that they sent me home for a few weeks…

While home, I was in a bar listening to a group of individuals talking about something they had no knowledge of and slamming that which they did not understand – they were simply regurgitating what they saw/heard on the news.  That was it.  I’m not going to protect this anymore, I actually wanted the “bad guys” to take these people out.  I was one of the few standing between the “bad guys” and these idiots.  I’m defending this?  Defending these people who would go out of their way to offend me at the drop of a hat.  Wasted my youth defending these people…

I got out and went to school.  First thing I realized about college was that I was a rarity – I showed up on time (even after a harsh night), did my work and helped others (tutored calc and stats for free).  I know that sounds extraordinary, but it’s not.  I was surrounded by lazy people who were completely into themselves.  It’s not that I was awesome or good, it’s just that they were so bad that it made me look good…

As an Audio/Visual Freelancer on an island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, I was everyones first call.  I was a rigger, audio tech, video tech, lighting tech, GRFX op, tape op, playback op, camera op, spotlight op – you name it.  I was all those things (and pretty good at each individual thing), not because I had to be (I could have been any ONE of those things and gotten by), because I loved the industry and loved to work.  It was an addiction for me…

Most folks think it’s really cool to have a jack of all trades on their crew for that “special something” that inevitably pops up in the course of setup or a few days into the run of the show.  All you have to do is show up on time, ready to work, ask the right questions beforehand so you would know what tools to bring, don’t worry about a break, be able to do any position the show required and be willing to stay after to reset anything that needed it.  I have always thought it was crazy how rare it was – I wasn’t, and am not, that awesome.

When I became a technical director, project manager and producer I quickly realized how rare it was.  To find someone who shows up on time, ready to work, ready to learn, is willing to ask questions, works instead of complains, doesn’t look at their watch or phone all day – it is indeed a rarity…

My biggest problem is that I have a brain.  To realize that you are rare simply because you don’t suck, well, that sucks…  I can’t even take a compliment because, in my brain, a compliment is not a compliment to me it is a jab at the incompetence of everyone else…  To me, I have never done anything extraordinary – it’s just what I do and/or how I do it…

A few years ago I got out of the A/V business and bought a carpet cleaning company from my in-laws.  Tell you what, finding employees…?  Forget it…  Someone who wants to work?  Forget it…  Someone who shows up on time?  Forget it…  Someone who doesn’t constantly call in sick?  Forget it?  Someone who can take their eyes off their phone to pay attention to what they are doing?  Forget it…

When it comes to “Friending” or “Following” folks online I have chosen folks from all gambits – I like to know what my friends are thinking about things but I also like to know what other folks are thinking.  I have a thing for thinking.  I do not like to just read that which perpetuates my own prejudice – I like to look at the whole picture – I like to try to change my mind with other view points…  I don’t care if it’s too far to the right or left, too republican or democrat, fear or hate – I want to read it…

The few things I can say with complete certainty right now is that I’m glad I’m not defending you anymore and that YOU SUCK…  I want to ask of you, please, stop it – please make a point to stop sucking, please make it a point to try to be worthy.  I was out of the military before starting a family – didn’t realize it until we started having kids that everything I did was for them – not for you, for them…

I am saying this simply because my daughter, my oldest, the beam of light straight from GOD who came into our family 17 years ago is leaving for the Naval Academy in two months.  When she gets there she will take an oath to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic”.  She is going to become an indentured slave who is going to be putting everything she has on the line for you…  Be worthy of that – please stop, think, repent and be worthy of that…

These kids she will soon be serving with:  In this day…  at this time…  under these conditions…  These are kids who have the choice of any college in America…  These are kids who do not have to join the military to get what they want out of life…  This is their choice – BE WORTHY OF THAT

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