I drive around the island everyday from j0b to job and see no fear from those of us working or from my customers (most of them greet me with no mask or gloves or anything – I tend to wear them simply for their comfort level).  The consensus amongst all these folks (after many conversations with customers and other folks I talk with throughout the day) is that COVID19 went through Maui in January (that is when we all remember being sick)…

The picture changes when I look online.  News is full of fear and my “Facebook Friends” are completely fear-bound (well, at least the ones posting).  Fear is always loudest – of course, the only fear based voices I’ve heard are those who have someone high risk in the house (I totally get it – my parents are high risk and living with us, so I get it), independently wealthy folks (who do not have to work) or those without kids (they don’t have other mouths to feed)…

Why are all the numbers being put out the numbers of folks who have been tested?  Of that, who has tested positive?  Of that, who has died?  That makes no sense to anyone with a brain – this is the worst case of fear-based marketing I have ever seen in my life…

Do you realize that these are much lower numbers than a regular flu season?  Do you realize that those dying are the same who would die from the regular flu?  What is different this time?  Ask yourself that next time you drive by, or go to, Maui Memorial and it’s empty parking lot…

The real data is, what is the population of the U.S.?  Of that, how many have died?  Now, of the U.S. population, how many are out of work due to the lockdown?  When I ask how many are out of work, I am not talking about those who put in for government assistance – I mean the actual number of folks out of work.

So, of the U.S. population, how many jobs were lost (which are not coming back in the near future)?  Of the U.S. population, what percentage has died from COVID19?  Those are the two numbers to dwell on…  Here’s another number: of those out of work, how many have children to feed?

But there’s no antibody testing – none – what sense does that make?  Coronavirus’ mutate – that’s why you can get a flu shot every year but still get the flu (you got the shot for the strain they were guesstimating would occur that year).  Why not put the money for that into antibody testing?  If this thing mutates then an immunity shot is worthless anyway…

The island wants to get back to work.  Problem is, but for those of us working right now, there are no jobs for them to return to.  The island has been devastated economically and there’s really no getting around the fact that 70%-90% of the business which were open on March 1st are “OUT OF BUSINESS” already.  There is no job to go back to here on Maui…

The only reason they’re letting the home builders, construction crews, cleaners and gardeners go to work everyday is because they are assuming we are low risk (most of us are younger and healthier – because we work outdoors) and they need SOMEONE to have money to keep Walmart, Costco, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, Safeway and Foodland here on the island…

The governor just extended the lockdown for another month – this actually makes more sense than you can imagine.  The economy is already gone so the issue is no longer the virus , the issue is about how to save face in this election cycle because no one has a job to get back to – they have to figure out what to say or do about that.  Even if we open up today there will be no tourist, there will be no corporate conferences, there will be no concerts, there will be very few restaurants to service those who service these people and there will be even fewer businesses open to service the rest.  As this continues, as more businesses close, there will be more people out of work – there will be less people going shopping, so more stores will close and more people will be out of work.  This is a terrible downward spiral we have gotten ourselves into…

Our economy is predicated on people spending money – if half the population is out of work and the other half is setting money aside for when the moment comes that they have no work, where does that leave us?

Do people honestly think a hotel with 1,000 employees is going to just open up and bring everyone back to work with no customers booked?  How many such hotels do we have here in Hawaii?  Do people really think the restaurants and shops who service these individuals are going to open if the hotels don’t open?  Do people really think the folks who supply those restaurants and shops are going to stay open if the restaurants which support the hotels are not open?  That entire supply chain is closed down (or has been disrupted to a trickle) right now…  Think about that!  Why would they open?  To throw money out the window?!?

Biking down the mountain, sunset cruises, scuba tours, snorkeling tours, smaller live music venues (bars/restaurants), helicopter tours, adventure tours (rappelling and such) – they are part of that chain as well.  Why would they open if there’s no customers?

The list goes on…

Here’s where we sit right now.  Everyone up for re-election is going to keep a lid on what is actually going on behind the scenes.  The press will do what they do (mostly blame the conservatives and praise the liberals), but even the politicians won’t blame each other because they all share in the blame and they can’t afford for the truth to get out until they have their little ounce of power.  So nothing will be said or done until after the election cycle.  No numbers will come out, no antibody testing, no apologies, no reality whatsoever…

Here in Hawaii, specifically on Maui, if the “powers that be” had any balls and/or brains they would be straight up and tell people this.  After telling us the “truth of the matter” they would open up the airports on the 5th, 15th and 25th for those who wanted to leave the islands – and they would make that flight a free one…

Even then, those of us left after the EXODUS are going to face some tough times…  It’s going to get much worse before it gets better…  but, in a few years there will be a lot of empty houses/properties and those of us still here will probably be able to get the property of our dreams for 50% of what it’s worth today – looking on the bright side…  The flip side of that is that we’ll be making 50% of what we are making today, but I digress…

Let me be clear, we are on an island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.  We can not simply drive to a new job.  If there are no jobs here, there simply are no jobs here…  What I am saying above does not apply to the U.S. as a whole, just our little island out here in the deep blue sea…

I’d also like to be clear about one other thing – we should force no one to go back to work if they are uncomfortable with it, are high risk or live with someone who is high risk.  Some folks are really afraid – true fear – allow them to stay home…

We’re Americans…

We’re not the smartest, most read or thoughtful of countries – but, there is one thing we are above all: we are arrogant as hell.  We choose to be ignorant in many ways – first and foremost, when choosing the news (we watch/read) or (online) searches we make for our information we typically choose to watch or read that which perpetuates our existing prejudices.  We do not intentionally go out of our way to read both sides to a story; we do not go out of our way to see the whole picture (just that which effects us in the here and now); we do not go out of our own way to change our own minds…

We choose to let fear set the pace for our way of thinking…

From the outset, fear started this country.  Fleeing persecution people came here for a better life – it was definitely harder than they thought it would be once they got here, but the initial spark in their brain that got them to come here in the first place was the thought of this place where they didn’t have to live in fear, could be free and work their own land.

We became free from England because we feared what would happen if we had taxation without representation – our fear was so intense that we went to war over it.  The thing we still don’t really see today (because we choose not to see the whole picture) is that the entire thing was initially about rich folks being taxed, in debt and not wanting to pay up.  It became what it was because of the way England handled it – it quickly became a cry for freedom.  The population of America was somewhere around 2.8 million at the time, of that about 250,000 served the American cause, another 25,000 served the British cause and the rest of the population tried to stay out of it (for fear of choosing the wrong side most likely)…

The Civil War began with the South’s fear of their way of life being changed.  They feared Lincoln so much that they left the Union before he was sworn in.  Lincoln did not start out wanting to free anyone, he simply wanted to keep the country/Union together.  It became a cry for freedom when he needed to motivate those who were on the fence about whether or not they should fight.  Of the (roughly) 35.5 million Americans at the time, the North had close to 2.2 million troops serve their cause and the South had close to 1 million troops serve their cause.  The rest of the country (again) chose to stay out of it…

Fear is our motivator.  It is why we watch what we watch, it is why we read what we read, it is why we do what we do.  Roughly 5% of our population serves to protect the rest of us (as active duty military)and another 5% of the population are veterans.  That’s right, 90% of the population is afraid to put their money where their mouth is (of course, they are completely willing to tell you what they think of almost anything) – but I digress and will move on (before I go off on a harsh tangent)…

The above being said, at what point does everyone realize that the numbers dying from this thing simply are not worth the numbers who are going to die from starvation or freezing to death (or any derivative of not having the money to pay for bills or food) or suicide (for getting too much in debt and seeing “no way out”)?  I mean, yes, we need to sit it out for a month to give the hospitals the time they need to prepare for the onslaught they will have in the ER – I think (I hope) we all get that at this point.  We are not going to stop this thing, we can slow it down a bit so the emergency response folks can prepare for what is to come, but WE WILL GET THIS THING.  For most of us it will be no worse than the seasonal flu – but this is much more contagious, so the ER’s have to be ready for it.  We will all have the anti-bodies in our blood before a shot comes out for it and if this thing mutates we will just have to fight it off again (and the shot will be useless) – so that is a huge waste of time, money and resources that can be used in other directions…

The tipping point is going to occur when all those folks who are fearful of it realize there is no way to stop it and that there never was.  The tipping point is going to happen when they realize they gave up their freedoms, their jobs, their way of life, their sanity and went completely into debt for absolutely no reason…  I went over that quickly, but let it sink in a little: WE ARE FREELY GIVING UP OUR FREEDOM AND WAY OF LIFE AND GOING COMPLETELY INTO DEBT FOR SOMETHING THAT CAN NOT BE STOPPED…

We have to give the ER’s time to prepare for this thing, ok – fine…  Stopping an entire economy out of fear is going to have a backlash of unimaginable proportions and I hope they are preparing for that as well…

I hope every American realizes that our way of life has changed permanently.  Nothing is going to go back to the way is was…

So, by Census Data estimates:
There are Approx 327,170,000 Americans

• Approx. 40% Work
• Approx. 20% Do Not Work
• Approx. 20% Youth
• Approx. 20% Elderly

By the numbers:

• Approx. 130,868,000 Work
• Approx. 65,434,000 Do Not Work
• Approx. 65,434,000 Youth
• Approx. 65,434,000 Elderly

Of those that work:

• if 1/3 of the employed are unemployed that would be 43,186,440 out of work
• if ½ of the employed are unemployed that would be 65,434,000 out of work

According to the CDC Data found in the New York Times article entitled “Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths”:

• 160M-214M Americans could be infected (that is 48.9% to 65.5% of the overall U.S. population)
• 2.4M-21M Americans could require hospitalization (that is .0734% to 6.4% of the overall U.S. population)
• 200,000-1.7M could die (that is .0061% to .0516% of the overall U.S. population)

Why are we putting (approx) 50M people out of work to save (approx) 1M people? Are we taking a huge risk that a certain percentage of the 50M people who are out of work will freeze or starve without the ability to pay the electric bill or food? Assuming those 50M folks have a significant other and/or just one kid, that is bringing the numbers effected to 100M-150M (approx 50% of the U.S. population) who are living off of whatever credit cards they have…

So, to rephrase the question with the new data: Why are we sacrificing 50% of the U.S. population for less than .05% of the population? Answer: because it could be more…  No government was prepared for this. Hospitals have run out of everything and most civilian Doctors and Nurses do not have it in them to triage (they want to help everyone and many would mentally break if asked to triage under the conditions that are to come). We are locked away in our homes to give them time to prepare for the numbers coming at them. They need more gear, equipment and personnel and they need them in place and ready to go – this gives them a month to prepare for what is to come…

The numbers above are scary, but they could possibly be worse…

Many factories have been retrofitted to make medical equipment and supplies, many veteran medics have been called to service to help hospitals triage (which is great, they are trained to do this). We’re giving these folks time to get the gear and equipment and personnel in place so that when we get this thing at least we know they are ready for us when/if we need it…

There is another caveat as well.  Essential Service workers.  We are all pretty much in the low risk for this thing – for most of us it will be a slight cold and then we’ll be done with it.  The hope is that this thing runs through essential workers in the next month so we will be healthy enough to help out if it is asked of us…