Dave Hakes' – Island Mode

"I must do something!" will always solve more problems than "Something must be done"

We can’t beat this thing, but we can be ready for it…

Posted by delta on April 1st, 2020

So, by Census Data estimates:
There are Approx 327,170,000 Americans

  • Approx. 40% Work
  • Approx. 20% Do Not Work
  • Approx. 20% Youth
  • Approx. 20% Elderly

By the numbers:

  • Approx. 130,868,000 Work
  • Approx. 65,434,000 Do Not Work
  • Approx. 65,434,000 Youth
  • Approx. 65,434,000 Elderly

Of those that work:

  • if 1/3 of the employed are unemployed that would be 43,186,440 out of work
  • if ½ of the employed are unemployed that would be 65,434,000 out of work

According to the CDC Data found in the New York Times article entitled “Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths”:

  • 160M-214M Americans could be infected (that is 48.9% to 65.5% of the overall U.S. population)
  • 2.4M-21M Americans could require hospitalization (that is .0734% to 6.4% of the overall U.S. population)
  • 200,000-1.7M could die (that is .0061% to .0516% of the overall U.S. population)

Why are we putting (approx) 50M people out of work to save (approx) 1M people? Are we taking a huge risk that a certain percentage of the 50M people who are out of work will freeze or starve without the ability to pay the electric bill or food? Assuming those 50M folks have a significant other and/or just one kid, that is bringing the numbers effected to 100M-150M (approx 50% of the U.S. population) who are living off of whatever credit cards they have…

So, to rephrase the question with the new data: Why are we sacrificing 50% of the U.S. population for less than .05% of the population? Answer: because it could be more…  No government was prepared for this. Hospitals have run out of everything and most civilian Doctors and Nurses do not have it in them to triage (they want to help everyone and many would mentally break if asked to triage under the conditions that are to come). We are locked away in our homes to give them time to prepare for the numbers coming at them. They need more gear, equipment and personnel and they need them in place and ready to go – this gives them a month to prepare for what is to come…

The numbers above are scary, but they could possibly be worse…

Many factories have been retrofitted to make medical equipment and supplies, many veteran medics have been called to service to help hospitals triage (which is great, they are trained to do this). We’re giving these folks time to get the gear and equipment and personnel in place so that when we get this thing at least we know they are ready for us when/if we need it…

There is another caveat as well.  Essential Service workers.  We are all pretty much in the low risk for this thing – for most of us it will be a slight cold and then we’ll be done with it.  The hope is that this thing runs through essential workers in the next month so we will be healthy enough to help out if it is asked of us…

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